Another Civil War for Chad?

Greetings all. I haven't quite had the energy to give my commentary these past few weeks. There has been a dramatic escalation in the security situation, as a number of people have defected from the army and government (and from the President's own tribe) to join the rebels (who we understand are organizing themselves just across the border in Darfur, Sudan). There have been a number of attacks in Eastern Chad over the past weeks and the government is visibly concerned, transporting huge loads of munitions and weapons to fortify the East. Information is incredibly hard to come by, which I suppose is not so surprising in a country with no real press. I've seen children selling pieces of paper in the streets of N'djamena that are supposedly the "newspapers". But anybody reporting truth would surely be jailed or killed.

In Iriba, there are no authorities remaining. They've all run off to join the rebels. The rebels are composed largely of Zaghawa, who are from Iriba, Guereda and other areas in Eastern Chad. Yesterday they attacked the town of Adre on the border, which is historically significant, as every successful rebel movement has always taken Adre first (including the current president). The rebels were pushed back by the government troops and with a high death toll. There is little doubt that these attacks will continue.

It's been interesting to talk to different people in N'djamena, from different regions, to get their perspectives. The bottom line? People are scared. Civil war is scary. Chadians know because they have lived through one to many. Most say it is best if Deby just stays in power. They say his pockets are already full. If somebody new comes to power, his pockets will be empty, so he will have to kill to fill up those pockets.

There's a lot more to the story to come...